Between March 2020, when WHO has declared coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak a global pandemic, and November 2021, 91 countries held national elections. Some of the initially scheduled elections were postponed primarily due to the challenges caused by the pandemic. Many countries held elections nevertheless. What characterized elections during these two challenging years? Below is an overview of all national elections that happened during the last two years.
Between March 2020 and November 2021, 19 elections had been postponed, primarily because of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The majority of elections were cancelled in the beginning of 2020, while only two countries - Iraq and Argentina - postponed their national elections in 2021.
The chart shows all the elections at the time of when they were originally supposed to be held.
One ballotrepresents one national election (either presidential or parliamentary), held on a given day, and two ballots represent countries where citizens elected president and parliament on the same day.
Hover over ballots to see country names.
Most elections were not postponed for a relatively large amount of time. On average, elections were held two months after they were postponed.
Here are those elections that were originally postponed shown on the month that they were actually held.
Between March 2020 and November 2021, elections were held in 91 countries. In total, 110 elections were held, with 18 countries having held multiple elections during this period.
In April 2020, a month after WHO declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic many countries decided to cancel scheduled elections. Only two countries - Kiribati and South Korea - held elections nevertheless.
South Korea was widely praised for measures implemented during the elections. Early voting was encouraged, home voting provisions were extended, and stringent measures were implemented at the polling stations. Public approval of the government's handling of the pandemic was evident in a landslide victory of President Moon Jae-in’s governing party in parliamentary elections.
Kiribati went ahead with parliamentary elections, after having postponed them for a week because of disrupted public services. At the time of elections, however, there were no official cases of COVID-19 recoded.
Four countries - Chad, Haiti, Somalia, and Armenia - postponed elections and have not yet held these elections to the moment of publication.
Some of these countries had more reasons to postpone elections than others. Armenia declared a state of emergency, having the highest number of COVID-19 cases among countries in the South Caucasus region. Parliamentary elections in Chad, initially scheduled in 2015, had been repeatedly postponed even before the pandemic. President Idriss Deby had ruled Chad for the past 30 years, until his death in April 2021.
Elections were postponed in democratic regimes, as well as in authoritarian. However, twice as many democracies postponed elections as autocracies. While democracies always held postponed elections later, non-democratic regimes tended to postpone elections indefinitely.
Non-democratic regimes tended to postpone elections for longer. While on average, democracies postponed elections for approximately three months, autocracies postponed elections on average for five months. and hybrid regimes for four months.
Ethiopia postponed parliamentary elections multiple times and for the longest period, for about ten months. Elections were originally scheduled for the end of August. At that time, 1,500 COVID-19 cases were recorded in the country, one of the highest numbers during the pandemic. The postponement of elections, done unilaterally by the prime minister Abiy Ahmed was met with criticism by his opponents.
How electoral participation changed during the pandemic?
With the pandemic affecting electoral calendars across the globe and political spectrum, has voter turnout*Turnout is defined as percentage of registered voters who participated in election experienced any changes? External shocks could potentially influence voter turnout in two ways: (1) by increasing the cost of voting, leading to fewer people showing up at the voting booths, or (2) by having a mobilizing effect.
The analysis shows that, in general, turnout has declined slightly since the start of 2020 in comparison to elections held before. On average, turnout was 61%.
A few countries held elections with quite a low turnout, which was affected by many factors, not only related to the pandemic. One example is Algeria, where a referendum proposing constitutional changes was held in November 2020. Many criticized the referendum, pointing out that country's ultra presidential regime will not change. The opposition movement called for a boycott of the vote.
Egypt held elections of the members of the Upper House that has no legislative powers, with only a third of members being elected directly. While similar to the previous election, turnout was lower than during the elections held in 2011-2012, which were proclaimed to be the first democratic elections in the country.
Mexico held a referendum in 2021 on whether to investigate former leaders, amid criticism that the vote is a political stunt. Only 7% of registered voters casted their ballots.
The Dominican Republic held general elections in July 2020, one of the first countries to hold elections during the pandemic in the Americas. On the elections day, 1,036 COVID-19 cases were registered, with the cumulative highest number of cases up to that moment, resulting in a much lower turnout in comparison to the previous election.
Several elections attracted much more voters than previous elections, despite the pandemic. For example, Burundi held elections to replace President Pierre Nkurunziza, who had ruled the country for 15 years. A competitive race to elect a new president attracted many voters, despite the widespread violence that accompanied the election.
South Korea was one of the first countries to hold elections during the pandemic. The government's successful handling of the crisis brought it a landslide victory with the highest turnout since 1996.
Voter turnout in democracies, authoritarian, and hybrid regimes
Difference in turnout in comparison to the previous election
Was turnout lower in elections with stricter lockdowns?
Since the start of the pandemic, governments have implemented various measures aiming at curbing the virus. Covid-19 government response stringency index developed at Oxford University provides a comparable measure of severity of lockdowns across countries.
Did fewer people turnout out to the polling stations in countries where lockdowns were the most severe?
Analysis shows that there was a negative relationship between turnout and stringency measures. In countries with more stringent policies, fewer voters showed at the polls compared to countries with lower stringency measures.
Turnout difference in comparison to the previous election has a negative but relatevely weak association with stringency measures. Approximately one third of all elections held between March 2020 and November 2021 had lower, or the same turnout as in the previous election and had a higher stringency index.
Even though stringency measures are related to turnout, the weaker relationship between turnout difference and stringency policies might hint that other factors, such as how close elections were, might have had a higher impact on turnout.
Elections during pandemic in Africa tended to have higher turnout than in the previous election and lower stringency index than elections in other countries. Half of all elections with higher turnout and low stringency measures were in Africa.
Did incumbents win or lose more frequently?
During the times of international crisises, citizens tend to unite behind their leaders and the support for the government is expected to increase. This a phenomenon known in political science literature as a "rally-round-the-flag" effect.
Overall, incumbents did win in more than a half of elections held during the pandemic. In democracies, however, the trend was more evident in 2020 when incumbents won a higher number of elections. In 2021, the number of elections with incumbents losing and winning was almost the same.
Recent studies found "rally around the flag" effect in Austria, and across 11 different countries, showing that political leaders got a boost in approval, especially in the early months of the pandemic.
.............................................
The pandemic disrupted the electoral calendar leading to many countries postponing elections. During the first months of the pandemic, political leaders got a boost in support demonstrated in many victories of incumbents. Half a year into the pandemic, however, elections got postponed much less frequently. Both democracies and autocracies postponed elections. While many countries opted not to hold elections during high infection rates, many went ahead despite high stringency measures. In those countries where stringency measures were particularly severe, fewer voters showed up at the polls.
While different countries responded in various ways to the pandemic, there is no doubt that COVID-19 has had an enormous global effect on the ability of people to exercise their right to vote. New strains continue emerging, and no clear end to the disruption is insight. What will this mean for the long-term future of democracy?
Data sources
Data on election dates was collected using a compilation of information provided by International IDEA website.
Data stringency measures: Covid-19 government response stringency index developed at Oxford University.
